Big Changes Around Here

Probullstats - May 15, 2003

First of all, as Bryan mentioned, we'll now be processing EVERY PRCA rodeo with an eye toward producing a list in October of bulls who are good enough on paper to be considered for the WNFR.

The additional number of records necessitates a few changes in the way we will be able to display data on bulls on the site. For starters, we will be posting fewer complete rodeo results, concentrating mainly on the ones Bryan has commentary for. In most cases, we will have the data available in the bull finder search function well before we are able to get it posted as a complete rodeo. We will be able to provide far more data on the bulls through the searches and the contractor pages than was previously available, which should make up for the fact that we will show fewer complete event results pages.

Secondly, since we will have on hand every record, our statistical analysis of bull performance and contestant performance will be much improved. We will be looking at every single out, rather than the fraction we were previously able to get processed. We will be able to provide comprehensive contestant AND bull performance records.

A few changes to the actual incoming data are necessary as well, so that we can do the math needed to compare one bull to another. These are:

A: Where judges use pluses and minuses. Pluses (+) will count as one half point. Minuses (-) will count for nothing Therefore, 20+ = 20.5 and 20- = 20.

B: In the case where one judge marks the bull, but the other doesn't -- the one existing judge's mark will be duplicated.

C: In the case where neither judge marks the bull, the bull will get a 21-21 marking and in the comments column, we will note "no mark." So if you look up a bull and see 21-21 "no mark" you know that the judges did not mark the bull at all. We may adjust the Bull Finder search so that "no mark" records are not returned.

D: In the case where the judge fails to write down the time, the time will be noted as 4 seconds, and in the comments, "no time" - just as in the case of "no mark"

E: Extreme Bulls Events records will be kept seperate from the rodeo records, and will not be considered in the bull or contestant performance analysis. These will be developed as a stand-alone set of records, but may be unavailable for the time it takes to get the rodeo records updated and running smoothly.

If you look at the contractor pages, or do a search for a bull, you can click on the bulls' number in the result set and see the profile for that bull - with all relevant statistics. The way I understand it, the buckoff percentage and the average marking will figure into a bull's eligibility for the WNFR. The average marking is actually the average marking for all that bull's trips where he was ridden for more than 2 seconds -- excluding the times he got a "no mark" (no marking from either judge - see explanation above).

Slade Long
Probullstats.com - 2003